• Fuel costs: uncertain. Depends on primary fuel used. In the case of hydrogen, price will strongly depend on demand. Considerable scale effects seem likely in case of dynamic demand development.
• Niehues, Edwards expect maintenance costs to fall by a factor of four between 2000 and 2007.

Key factors for price development

Price effects will mainly come from three areas:

• Manufacturing processes (cf. Application outside railway sector - Potential for further development)
• A supply industry for individual components does not yet exist and has to be systematically developed in the future.
• Production numbers have to increase substantially.

Expected price development

In a publication from 2000 (Niehues, Edwards 2000), DaimlerChrysler and Adtranz expected the following relative price development for the complete 230 kW FC system including the components but excluding a traction system and hydrogen tanks:

1999: 16.

2002: 4.

2004: 3.

2007: 1

Thus expected price in 2007: 100.000 Euro.

Niehues, Edwards specify the conditions for such a devlopment:

"By the year 2004 the production of 100.000 fuel cell stacks (ca. 50 kW) for the automobile sector has to be achieved and a dedicated fleet of fuel cell busses of about 1000 vehicles has to be in place by 2007. In case serial production has not reached 100.000 items per year by 2004, the costs for the stacks will stay at their current high level."

In 2002, it is already clear that a production of 100000 items in 2004 will not be reached. The above scale effects are therefore too optimistic as well and have to be postponed by at least 3 years.

Fuel prices

Scale effects are to be expected for fuel prices as well.

In view of the present uncertainties concerning the price of both fuel cells and fuel, no general payback characteristics can be given.

The study by DB AG yielded the following economic feasibility (assuming two different investment costs 2000 and 50 EURO/kW):

Source: Hörl et al. 2001

This table shows that economic feasibility could be reached for investment costs of 50 EURO/kW and methanol operation.